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Distribution Shift

A condition in which the distribution of data encountered in deployment or another evaluation differs from the distribution used for training or a reference evaluation.

Example

A model evaluated mainly on technical documents is deployed in an environment with very different vocabulary and question patterns, and its answer accuracy declines.

Distinctions and cautions

Distribution Shift refers to the changed data or environmental conditions themselves. Whether the system maintains required performance under those changes is a question of Robustness. How far performance generalizes outside the previous distribution is a separate evaluation question.

Open questions and cautions

In operational LLM use, the extent to which changes in users, topics, time, prompts, or connected tools should count as changes in the “distribution” depends on the intended use.

Evidence

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WILDS: A Benchmark of in-the-Wild Distribution Shifts

Title
WILDS: A Benchmark of in-the-Wild Distribution Shifts
Author / organization
Koh et al.
Year
2021
Source type / publication status
ICML peer-reviewed research; published
Supported concepts / claim context
Distribution Shift, Robustness.
Scope and limitations
A general machine-learning benchmark, not limited to LLMs.
Access / version note
Published conference proceedings.
Recorded official URL / DOI / identifier
Official URL / recorded link

Evaluating Model Robustness and Stability to Dataset Shift

Title
Evaluating Model Robustness and Stability to Dataset Shift
Author / organization
Subbaswamy et al.
Year
2021
Source type / publication status
AISTATS peer-reviewed research; published
Supported concepts / claim context
Robustness, Distribution Shift.
Scope and limitations
Primarily predictive-model settings.
Access / version note
Published conference proceedings.
Recorded official URL / DOI / identifier
Official URL / recorded link